Performance of a Bog Hydrological System Dynamics Simulation Model in an Ecological Restoration Context: Soomaa Case Study, Estonia

We describe how a bog hydrology simulation model, developed in the System Dynamics environment, predicts changes groundwater levels that result from drainage ditch closure and partial thinning of surrounding forest stand. Five plots were selected an area was subjected to such ecological restoration, observed compared with simulated ones. Across plots, mean difference between curves varied 0.88 2.63 cm, RMSE 0.28 0.71. Although absolute predicted vs. values greater closure, co-varied more closely there over time. Therefore, hydrological models can be particularly useful for relative comparisons risk-mapping novel management scenarios.